Total oil and natural gas production (or consumption), which currently
provides about 60% of global energy use, is expected to peak in 20 plus
or minus 10 years, followed by a rapid decline. During that same time
interval, the developing world will see an approximate doubling of its
population as well as an approximate tripling in per capita energy
consumption. The near-coincidence of these three galloping trends have
created two unprecedented global challenges: The threatened global
shortage of acceptable energies and the imminent danger of unacceptable
global warming and its consequences. This colloquium describes a
possible way of coping with this situation: A concerted commitment to a
changeover from the current era dominated by oil plus natural gas to a
future era dominated by solar and wind energy, both of which are clean
and effectively inexhaustible. However, this optimistic perspective must
be tempered with the realization that, unless there are technological
breakthroughs, the energy of the future would be much more costly than
at this time. In the United States this would require a significant
change of lifestyle: population stabilization and greater energy
effectiveness and conservation.